Forecasting: Your Trust Currency

Getting right has more impact than you might think.

By: David Groves

In the boardroom, forecasts aren’t just about numbers. They’re the currency of trust. When they miss, it’s not only revenue that slips; investor confidence erodes in the background.

Forecasts whisper their issues long before they miss. The trick is hearing those whispers from every angle:

🔹 Pipeline roll-up = accountability. Reps own their commits, managers own the roll-up. It’s the first lens; also the most biased.

🔹 Manager / regional scenarios drift. Optimism, sandbagging, or politics can creep in. That’s why an independent overall scenario is essential.

🔹 AI and probabilistic models add perspective. Historical win rates, cycle lengths and usage signals all surface patterns humans miss. Pipeline created and closed in quarter, stage by stage conversions and close models - all these are helpful, but not a total substitute for judgment.

🔹 Having a deal stack is an important cross-check. Pull-forwards, swing deals, upside bets — seeing the architecture of the number keeps riskier deals from carrying the whole forecast.

🔹 And yes… the spreadsheet forms the trust layer. One reconciled summary where judgment, data, and risk converge. 

Forecast accuracy matters. But credibility is what PE/VC partners, CFOs, and boards buy into. And credibility lives in the moment you can show: we see the risks, and we have them under control.

Good operators hear the whispers; great ones act on them. About the authorDavid Groves is an industry expert with decades of experience helping companies of all sizes with GTM and Operations strategies. Having worked with firms like Adobe, HP, Contentsquare, Cognism, and others, David has a reputation for keen insight, focused analysis, and effective strategy development. You can find out more about David on his LinkedIn page here: David Groves